Research

Research Overview

My research is currently focused on human reliability analysis (HRA) with an application to nuclear power operations inside the main control room. My work is on the conceptualization, modeling and quantification of dependency in HRA, which is how causal factors and other variables are causally related to each other. The current state-of-the-practice in HRA is to view dependency in an "error-begets-error" paradigm, where human errors are assumed to increase the likelihood of subsequent errors, with the increase in probability being tabulated from a checklist of assumed dependency drivers (e.g., closeness in time of the tasks, crew makeup, presence of additional cues, etc.). However, there is no explicit inclusion of causal relationships as the driver of dependency - the factors used to determine dependency are essentially correlational/coincidental commonalities between the two tasks under consideration. Further, the mathematics that determine the increase in error probability are not grounded in any experiments, data or literature, and applying dependency analysis to HRA can actually "drown out" previous analyses. 

My research is focused on correcting these issues with dependency analysis. I take a causal view of dependency - that the relationships of importance in HRA are necessarily due to causal connections (otherwise, we are changing results based on coincidences). My early research reviewed the current state-of-the-practice and state-of-the-art in dependency research for HRA, which found among other things that dependency was never adequately defined as a concept. I further found that almost every dependency method in use today can trace aspects back to a single genesis methodology laid down in the Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP) in the 1970s. My research is improving dependency analysis by: 

Peer-reviewed Journal Papers

J5: Camille S. Levine, Ahmad Al-Douri, Vincent Philip Paglioni, Michelle Bensi, and Katrina M. Groth, Identifying

human failure events for human reliability analysis: A review of gaps and research opportunities, Reliability Engi-

neering & System Safety, 109967, 2024.

J4: Vincent P. Paglioni and Katrina M. Groth, Creating formative HRA dependency models using the HRA dependency

idioms and SACADA data, part I: Model construction algorithm, Annals of Nuclear Energy, 208, 110762, 2024.

J3: Vincent P. Paglioni and Katrina M. Groth, Creating formative HRA dependency models using the HRA dependency

idioms and SACADA data, part II: Model quantification, Annals of Nuclear Energy, 208, 110761, 2024.

J2: Paglioni, V. P., & Groth, K. M. Dependency Idioms for Quantitative Human Reliability Analysis. Nuclear Science and Engineering (under review).

J1: Paglioni, V. P., & Groth, K. M. (2022). Dependency definitions for quantitative human reliability analysis. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 220. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2021.108274


Refereed Conference Papers

C14: Yochan Kim, Vincent P. Paglioni, Luca Podofillini, and Jaewhan Kim, Assessing effects of a human success event on

dependency between human failure events based on the EMBRACE method, in The 34th European Safety and Relia-

bility Conference, Cracow, Poland, Jun. 2024.

C13: Ben Manavi, Edward Chen, and Vincent Philip Paglioni, Investigating the reliability of machine learning predic-

tions: Proposed alterations to the dare model, in Proceedings of the Pacific Basin Nuclear Conference 2024 (PBNC),

Idaho Falls, ID, Oct. 2024.

C12: Torrey Mortenson, Ben Manavi, and Vincent P. Paglioni, Can an efficient nuclear energy industry still be resilient?

on the nature of efficiency and resiliency, in Proceedings of the Pacific Basin Nuclear Conference 2024 (PBNC), Idaho

Falls, ID, Oct. 2024.

C11: Dan Perrault, Erika Gallegos, Vincent Paglioni, and Thomas Bradley, Usability challenges of failure mode and ef-

fects analysis (FMEA) within the V-Model, in INCOSE HSI 2024 Human Systems Integration International Conference,

Jeju, Korea, Aug. 2024.

C10: Vincent P. Paglioni, A system objectives-based proposal for modeling resilience in nuclear power plant operations,

in Proceedings of the Pacific Basin Nuclear Conference 2024 (PBNC), Idaho Falls, ID, Oct. 2024.

C9: Vincent P. Paglioni, Towards ethical risk assessment, in The 34th European Safety and Reliability Conference, Cracow,

Poland, Jun. 2024.

C8: Vincent P. Paglioni, Yochan Kim, and Jaewhan Kim, Recommending updates to the EMBRACE HRA dependency

assessment method to account for multiple HFE cut sets, in The 34th European Safety and Reliability Conference, Cra-

cow, Poland, Jun. 2024.

C7: Torrey Mortenson, Vincent P. Paglioni, and Ronald L. Boring, Back to Basics: First Principles of HRA, in Proceedings

of the 18th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis (PSA 2023), Knoxville, Jul. 2023.

C6: Paglioni, V. P., Levine, C. S., Al-Douri, A. & Groth, K. M. (2023). "Why Do Human-Machine Teams Fail: Investigating Failure Mechanisms in Human Reliability Analysis." 2023 International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis (PSA 2023). Knoxville, TN.

C5: Paglioni, V. P., & Groth, K. M. (2023). "Bridging the Data-Model Gap for HRA: Creating Bayesian Networks from HRA Data." 2023 International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis (PSA 2023). Knoxville, TN.

C4:  Paglioni, V. P., Mortenson, T., & Groth, K. M. (2022). "The human failure event: what is it and what should it be?" 2022 Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference (PSAM16). Honolulu, HI.

C3: Ruiz-Tagle, A., Paglioni, V. P., Lopez-Droguett, E., & Groth, K. M. (2021). "A Framework to Extrapolate and Evaluate Human Reliability Causal Models from Event Report Narratives." 2021 International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis (PSA 2021). Columbus, OH. 

C2: Paglioni, V. P., & Groth, K. M. (2021). "Defining Dependency in HRA." 2021 International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis (PSA 2021). Columbus, OH.

C1: Paglioni, V. P., & Groth, K. M. (2020). "Unified Definitions for Dependency in Quantitative Human Reliability Analysis." Proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and the 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference. Venice, Italy.


Conference, Workshop, and Invited Presentations

P4: Vincent P. Paglioni, Camille S. Levine, and Katrina M. Groth, UMD Systems Risk and Reliability Analysis (SyRRA) Lab: HRA Research - Improving the Foundational Knowledge of Dependency in HRA, Presented to Sandia National Laboratory (invited), Albuquerque NM, March 23, 2022.

P3: Katrina M. Groth and Vincent P. Paglioni, Using Bayesian Networks in Human Reliability Analysis, Presented to Sandia National Laboratory (invited), Virtual, November 5, 2021.

P2: Vincent P. Paglioni, and Katrina M. Groth, Temporal Behaviors of Dependency Relationships in Human Reliability Analysis, Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis, Virtual, December 2020.

P1: Vincent P. Paglioni and Katrina M. Groth, Can HRA Data Address HFE Dependency?, Presented at the NRC HRA Data Workshop, Virtual, March 2020.

Non-Technical Articles

NT1: Paglioni, V. (2015, November). The Ethics of Intelligent Machines. Investments & Wealth Monitor, 50–52. https://investmentsandwealth.org/getattachment/f3614756-1e1d-49c7-a201-29dbc22d8fbf/IWM15NovDec-EthicsIntelligentMachines.pdf


Working Articles

W3: Paglioni, V. P., & Groth, K. M. Perspectives on Improving the HRA Modeling and Data Lifecycle. In preparation. 

W2: Paglioni, V. P., & Groth, K. M. Creating Formative Dependency Bayesian Network Models Using the HRA Dependency Idioms and HRA Data, Part II: Model Quantification. In preparation for publication in: Reliability Engineering & System Safety. 

W1: Paglioni, V. P., & Groth, K. M. Creating Formative Dependency Bayesian Network Models Using the HRA Dependency Idioms and HRA Data, Part I: Model Construction. In preparation for publication in: Reliability Engineering & System Safety.